Manny Ramirez retired this week amid reports of a second positive drug test. Although some reports portray his stupidity for testing positive, I’m more interested in cleverness of his retirement.
Examine this chart:
Since 2004, the biggest two stories about Manny were a) being traded from one big market team to another (2008) and b) failing a drug test for the first time (2009). Yet as Jayson Stark points out:
In 2009, he… somehow retained his phony image as a fun-loving, dreadlock-wearing, batsmith/comedian.
and
2,574 hits, the 555 homers, the .585 career slugging percentage, the .996 OPS… Just three players in history have ever assembled those numbers (Babe Ruth, Barry Bonds and Ramirez.)
So imagine your Ramirez, and you get an advanced notice you will be suspended for 100 games. You know how much news reported your first suspension, how it reached the casual fans via the Wall Street Journal, you know your numbers are already in rarefied air, and you know you still have a chance at the Hall of Fame, considering you played in two large markets, averaged legendary numbers and won a championship in Boston. What do you do?
You retire, with only one positive test, for a drug that isn’t a steroid, and preempt the news. And it seems thats what happened: no one is publicly flogging Manny for this test, the news isn’t making a big deal out of it, and in six months the casual fan won’t even remember it. But Boston will remember the championship, statisticians will remember his numbers, the commissioner will remember how he helped to keep the steroid story down, and the Hall of Fame will accept him by 2020.
